Summary: Rejected Votes, Chiam See Tong, Eric Low and Aljunied
Table and notes on rejected votes and election in general.**Please look at the table before reading this post
Election was yesterday.
By now, everyone (who bothers) should have known the result. This year, the election is more exciting from the previous. All the parties involved this time round achieved more than 22%. Even Ang Mo Kio, the constituency where I predicted would get more than 12.5% and less than 20%, got more than 30% of the votes. But what is most interesting about the election is not the higher percentage of votes the opposition gathered but the number of rejected votes.

I am not too sure about the last election but in this year's election, there seemed to be too many rejected votes. I made a table on the number of votes considered void. (see top photo) From the statistics, it appeared that the two constituency where the SDP contested have the highest number of rejected votes with 893 and 5487 respectively. SDA ranked second with its high number of invalid votes in the contested areas as compared to those by WP.
Likely reasons for this phenomenon:
- 'Kiasi' Singaporeans. They do not want to vote for PAP but are afraid to offend them. This group of people have jobs or relations to the government. They don't want to take a risk. See My Mother, Polling Agent for more details.
- They made a mistake. Very likely. Some of the elderly may have circled or ticked instead of crossed. Everyone makes stupid mistakes.
- SDA's poster. A picture of a box ticked not crossed. (see second photo, taken from wiki) I was laughing when I saw the posters. Even my sister got confused as to whether it's a tick or a cross for the actual thing. It sure accounts for the high rates of rejected votes they have apart from Potong Pasir.
- Singaporeans who do not want to vote for PAP but do not want to vote for the opposition either. (see SDP's performance on void votes, applicable to other parties) Another likely reason. SDP's high mumber of rejected votes could be due to internal conflicts that they have kindly broadcasted on national TV and papers. SDA has the Ah Beng image and WP has the Gomez issue.
- People counting the votes are stringent. Possible but not necessary. I am more inclined to think that they are more lenient.
Continued from today morning:
After a good night (morning?) rest, I continued my research. Despite my best efforts, I am unable to find the statistics for spoil votes in 2001 and before. Hence we do not know if this high number of rejected votes is indeed extraordinary as compared to the previous elections. It will be interesting to discover though.
Apart from the rejected votes, one of the unexpected situation in the election is Potong Pasir. That Chiam See Tong is actually able to retain Potong Pasir in the 15th general election is highly astonishing. Many people I knew, including me, thought that Potong Pasir is going to lose. Instead, Chiam See Tong created a miracle and won it yet again. In any case, it would do him some good to savor his victory while it lasts. It is close to impossible that he will be able to win again in the 16th general election. Unless Chiam See Tong is able to produce the money for the much needed upgrading in the Potong Pasir, the probablity that he will lose is extremely high. Even then, if PAP begin
now to woo the residents, it is likely that they will change camp. Potong Pasir is in a really bad fix. Between Hougang and Potong Pasir, Hougang is definitely much better.
People must be wondering why Hougang embraces the opposition. You really have to pity Eric Low, the PAP MP for Hougang. He is a poor sacrificial lamb. As Low Thiang Khiang achieved his best result ever, Eric Low has done his worst. It is quite sad considering the amount of work he poured into Hougang. He works at Town Council for free and spends many mornings walking around and talking to the residents. Despite all these, the residents are not impressed. They prefer "heaven got eyes" Low Thiang Khiang. Had PAP won Potong Pasir, Eric Low will have to make way for a better canditate since PAP will focus all their energy In Hougang. If PAP
really want to win Hougang, they could have fielded in a much better candidate than Eric Low. Then again they have good candidates for Aljunied and looked what happen.
PAP must be sweating now. The Workers' Party achieved a 43.92% in Aljunied despite the James Gomez issue. But has Gomez really affected the results? Swing votes generally account for 10-15%. Let's say that the Gomez issue annoyed these people and they voted for PAP. Therefore the Workers' Party should have won. Bullshit. In my opinion, Gomez really didn't make that much of a difference. He may have have accounted for 5-6% but nothing more. If anything, PAP overdid the Gomez issue. Quite a number of people are rather unhappy about PAP (
see article at yawningbread) and resulted in sympathy votes instead. Whichever is the case, PAP must be sweating now. It is entirely possible that the Aljunied residents will be wooed with lots of carrots for the next 5 years. It is also possible that Aljunied may find itself reduced in size.
The 15th General Election has been an exciting ride. The oppositions have improved their percentage of votes and Workers' Party becomes the single greatest threat to the PAP. One must note that the 15th election is very different from the one conducted in 2001. In 2001, the 911 incident happened two months before the election and there were fears of job loss and economic instability. It is not difficult to see why they did not do well. However, oppositions are unlikely to go beyond the results of this election. PAP is very likely to maintain their high 60% overall unless there is a radical change in attitude in the citizens.
Election is now over and I have to get back to my assignments and mugging for tests.
If I have any spelling/grammar mistakes, please comment!